A new study shows that Filipino birdwatchers, together with cutting-edge satellite data, are helping scientists identify the country’s riskiest locations for outbreaks of dangerous bird flu—a disease that seriously threatens both poultry and people.
Researchers analyzed data from eBird, a popular citizen science platform where birders report what species they see and where, along with satellite remote sensing that tracks environmental changes like rainfall and vegetation. By blending these crowd-sourced bird sightings with high-tech maps, they created a detailed risk map showing where outbreaks of H5N1 avian influenza in poultry are most likely.
The findings spotlighted Metro Manila and Central Luzon as current bird flu “hotspots.” Here, a combination of heavy rainfall, large numbers of people, and the presence of common birds such as the Eurasian Tree Sparrow and Zebra Dove all increase risk. Both bird species live close to people and poultry and may play a role in the virus moving between wild birds and farm animals.
Bird flu, caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses like H5N1, regularly devastates Asian poultry flocks. But it also occasionally jumps to new species—including, rarely, humans. “Our risk maps can help the government and farmers focus on monitoring and prevention where it’s needed most,” the authors say.
Key findings:
- Merging citizen science bird data with remote sensing gives highly accurate maps of disease risk.
- Rainfall, especially in December, and human population density are strong environmental predictors for outbreaks.
- The Eurasian Tree Sparrow and Zebra Dove—both often found near homes and farms—emerge as the top local species linked to heightened risks.
- The highest risk zones are clustered around Metro Manila and neighboring agriculture-rich provinces in Luzon.
- As a result, both poultry and native wild birds in these areas could face higher risks for future outbreaks.
The study urges authorities to keep supporting crowd-sourced birding data, increase avian flu surveillance among both poultry and wild birds, and pay close attention to environmental and farm management policies. Birders, scientists, and public health experts working together may be the key to stopping future epidemics before they start.
Ref
- https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GH001405